CommentsCORRUPTION WATCH-The mathematician and philosopher Alfred North Whitehead said, “seek simplicity and distrust it.”
That’s the rationale behind Occham's razor (“the simplest solution tends to be the right one.”) People point to Einstein’s E=mc2 as it has only two variables, mass and speed of light. Physicists and philosophers search for the Unified Theory.
Another Simple Correlation: Population Density Causes Traffic Congestion
We can make this simple correlation endlessly confusing by adding a gazillion factors and constantly giving people false data. For some reason, which must have a simple answer, Angelenos do not notice that there is no morning rush hour in Death Valley. Angelenos seem to think that the high rises in DTLA have been mandated by God, on perhaps the 6thday of Creation. So, what can we do? Los Angeles commuters mimic Tennyson: “Ours is not to reason why, but to do or die.”
If there were no DTLA, people would not try to get to it each morning. The same for Bunker Hill, Century City and West LA. This is not a complex idea. The reason we have rush hour traffic is that we created office density in these towers and then placed our bedrooms 20 to 30 miles away.
Less than 2.5% of LA jobs are in DTLA, which tells us that all those jobs could easily be distributed around the rest of the urban area. There is no rational reason for someone who lives in Encino to have his office at One Wilshire.
Every time we have a holiday like Labor Day, the freeways run smoothly. How hard is to figure out that less people going to work in DTLA means less traffic congestion? How hard is it to figure out that the more office towers in DTLA, the more cars are attracted to DTLA on workdays?
The positive relationship between concentrating offices in small areas like Century City causing more traffic congestion is not a complex idea, nor is it hard to realize that the person who benefits is the guy who owns the land – not the fool who drives 45 minutes each morning and evening.
Mass Transit is not a Solution – It’s Another Problem
How hard is it to figure out that riding subways, fixed rail and even buses take much longer and is less convenient than driving? Clearly hordes of people would demand fixed rail transit if they wanted it. Instead, we see people abandoning mass transit whenever possible. These are not complex concepts.
Are we too dim-witted to comprehend that things like subways and fixed rail deteriorate and cost a fortune to repair? Fixed rail has about a 30-year life span before we must start spending billions of dollars on maintenance and repairs. The oldest portions of LA subways are approaching 30 years old and zero dollars have been allotted for any maintenance or repairs; people are abandoning mass transit.
While we cannot personally see each Family Millennial who moves away from LA, those who are interested in demographics have been warning for years that Family Millennials are leaving while the city has been loading us up with hundreds of billions in debt? Again, it is not difficult to understand how a city that chases away the smartest and brightest of the younger generation and increases its debt is headed for disaster.
If We Cannot Answer the Simple, How Can We Deal with the Complex?
Here’s a complicated question: where will the city and METRO get these extra billions of dollars to do maintenance and repair?
Here’s another complicated question: what happens when the city and METRO fail to maintain and repair subways and fixed rail systems?
Another question: What will we do when robo-cars are common? The city will not even admit the existence of Virtual Presence, which is the fastest growing mode of transportation; so, it certainly will not tell voters about robo-cars.
The Advent of Robo-Cars
We know that self-driving cars will be perfected. We know that computer-connectivity cannot be stopped. Thus, we know that our homes, our cars and Ralph’s will communicate. If Ralph’s does not bring food to our homes, our robo-cars will go to Ralph’s for us and stop at the cleaners and maybe pick up the kids from school.
Thus, robo-cars mean more cars on the road and that mandates less population density. It is a fool’s dream to think we can increase population density and then increase the number of cars on the streets without huge problems. Sure, maybe your robo-car won’t mind its being caught in traffic, but all the human beings who are also in traffic will be mad as hell.
Here’s another facet of electric robo-cars: If you own a single-family home, you can cover your roof with solar panels, which will become increasingly efficient, and you will not need gas, but more importantly, you will not need DWP to fuel your electric cars. People stuck in apartments, boy will they have huge DWP bills.
What is likely to happen is that people who buy homes far, far from DTLA will have larger homes with yards and lots of solar cells and a low cost of living, while people stuck in apartments will have cramped spaces and a very high cost of living.
The Law of Osmosis
People migrate from areas of High Cost and Low Opportunity to areas of Low Cost and High Opportunity. This phenomenon is already underway as Family Millennials move to Nashville and Texas, but it also explains the move from LA to Riverside and San Bernardino. Similarly, it will cause the vast growth of the high desert communities. As the efficiency of solar cells increases, the cost of air conditioning will decrease. As Virtual Presence becomes prevalent, people will have little need to work near each other. As self-driving cars become realistic, we will have not only robo-cars but also people who do commute will have free time and hence a longer commute will not be so troublesome.
As technology advances, real estate values on the Basin will plummet. Has there ever been an area where real estate values have remained high while there was a mass exodus?
(Richard Lee Abrams is a Los Angeles attorney and a CityWatch contributor. He can be reached at: [email protected]. Abrams’ views are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of CityWatch.) Edited for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.
