CommentsGELFAND’S WORLD--It's been a demanding year. We've had several of the worst brush fires in the history of California. In the northern part of the state, the death toll has been astonishing, at more than 80 in one incident.
Closer to home, the Woolsey fire burned for two weeks and maxed out at just under a hundred thousand acres, destroying 1500 structures in the process.
We were fairly ready -- southern California has endured numerous giant fires over the years -- think back on Topanga Canyon or Bel Air -- but this season was surprisingly aggressive.
Considering how experienced our fire departments have become and how ready they have forced themselves to be, what lessons have emerged from the latest fire season? In order to consider this question, the Neighborhood Council Emergency Preparedness Alliance (NCEPA) invited representatives from among the worst hit areas to share their views.
Reva Feldman is the City Manager of Malibu.
Rick Mullen is not only a member of the Malibu City Council, he is a professional fire fighter.
Richard Levy is the president of the Community Services District of Bell Canyon, a region in the far west end of the San Fernando Valley that was hard hit in the early hours of the fire.
These three are obviously among the most knowledgeable about the advance preparations for the fire and their actual outcomes, as they were intimately involved at each point in time. Over the course of the discussion, they pointed out the successes, the difficulties, and some possibilities for future changes.
The Geography of the Fire
The fire began on November 8, 2018. Although it is recognized in the public mind for the damage it did to Malibu, it began well to the north, near Simi Valley. Within a few minutes of the fire starting, it was out of control. Fanned by strong winds, it crossed the Ventura Freeway (101) and continued to move south towards the coast. Over the course of two weeks, the Woolsey Fire burned more than 96,000 acres. This number is hard for your average European or easterner to comprehend, being more than 6 times the area of Manhattan Island and twice the area of Brooklyn. It's sobering to consider that at its peak, the fire spread over an area equivalent to that of Manhattan Island in just a few hours.
Successes
Although the panelists were too polite to claim a great victory in terms of survival, it became apparent that the three known dead from the Woolsey fire constitute a low (and perhaps lucky) number. This is particularly apparent when we consider that nearly three hundred thousand people had to evacuate the area as the fire moved towards the coast.
As Reva Feldman pointed out, 250,000 people were evacuated over a 24-hour period. This population included inhabitants of approximately 60,000 homes.
The evacuation process involved closing off the western terminus of the Santa Monica Freeway (I-10) and taking over Pacific Coast Highway for the sole use of evacuating traffic and emergency responders. As Feldman explained, the region of PCH between Malibu and Santa Monica runs through multiple jurisdictions -- the cities of Malibu, Santa Monica, and Los Angeles, plus unincorporated county land. Getting all these jurisdictions to cooperate in expediting the movement of traffic, which included reversing the normal flow in the northbound lanes, took time and effort.
Those caught in the gigantic traffic jam were not amused. But from the point of view of the authorities, people who were in their cars on PCH were not at risk from the fire. If nothing else, they could always leave their cars and move onto the beaches.
Bell Canyon does not have a huge population (a couple of thousand) and they all survived the fire, although they all had to evacuate.
Advance Preparation and the Notification System
The panelists remarked on the fact that both Malibu and Bell Canyon have tried to educate their populations regarding emergency preparedness. Malibu has a system for sending out cell phone alerts. Malibu also uses a Reverse 911 system to call landline phones. Both the City Manager and the City Council representative made it clear that they are serious about advance preparation.
We asked about the idea of advance drills. The answer was that the city tested its cellular notification system in advance, but it did not do any kind of physical drill that would have involved people leaving in their cars.
At another extreme, Bell Canyon is atypical in that it lacks cellular phone communications. Therefore, the kind of text notification systems used by Malibu and Los Angeles are not practical. Making things even more difficult, Bell Canyon lost its landline service within a few minutes due to the fire destroying a switching center. On the other hand, the population seems to be connected to each other and Bell Canyon sends out an emergency preparation booklet to all its residents every two to three years. In any case, everybody got out without loss of life. This 100% survival was in spite of the fact that the area had 5% (39) of its homes completely destroyed and a comparable number damaged by the fire.
Over many years and many brush fires, there have been comparatively few civilian deaths in southern California. We have however witnessed some notable losses of fire fighters from time to time.
The Difficulties
Reva Feldman quietly made a statement that seemed the most dramatic to me. She remarked that it is hard to rely on telephone and cell phone communications when the telephone polls and cell phone towers are burning. This should come as a strong wakeup call to those of us who have become habituated to having the use of cell phones at all times and places.
I should point out that we have been making an analogous case in these pages about earthquake preparedness. In a situation where there is no electric power (likely after a big earthquake), cell phone towers will run down their battery backups within a few hours.
In either case, the personal cell phone isn't going to be useful for very long.
Access Denial for Critical Responders
Bell Canyon uses a water tank that ordinarily holds several million gallons. Due to fire-driven damage in downstream pipes, there were leaks that were causing the tank to drain. As Richard Levy remarked, it becomes hard to fight a fire when all the water is gone.
When crew who were able to shut off the leaks arrived, they were not allowed into the area because the police had orders to keep people out. Panelists agreed that something should be done about this situation in advance of future fires. One suggestion was that the definition of who is a First Responder be revised to take into account the need for workers who are not members of the police or the fire department. I wondered if the command structure could immediately consider appeals for entry and act on them rapidly. It shouldn't have been so hard.
A Few Questions
Would hardening the electrical distribution system and the telephone lines be an improvement? Even if this were the case, it would be difficult and expensive to move the lines underground in some of the canyon areas due to the geology and narrow corridors. On the other hand, replacing some or all of the cellular towers with fire resistant structures would be useful in a future emergency.
In addition, the use of mobile cellular trucks has become common at major sporting events, and those were made use of during the fire emergency.
The Big Lesson: The Need for Public Education
Malibu Councilman and fire fighter Rick Mullen was adamant about this point. We need to educate the public about preparedness. This includes explaining the need for keeping supplies of water and food, as well as education in what to do when a major disaster occurs.
The process of public education overlaps with awareness of who our neighbors are and what their particular vulnerabilities -- and skill sets -- may be. As Reva Feldman stated, the neighborhood is your resource. Readers of this column will remember that I have been critical of the plan that Los Angeles calls Ready Your L.A. Neighborhood. My criticism is based on the likelihood that few people will take advantage of it as it is based on low coverage and a lengthy process. But this is not to say that we shouldn't reach out to our neighbors and relatives in order to accomplish at least the minimum level of preparedness.
The Limited Response Time
It has become increasingly obvious that brush fires can move extremely rapidly, which means that the people in their path don't have a lot of time to react. In the case of earthquakes, the warning time is shorter, ranging from zero to perhaps a minute if the new ShakeAlertLA warning system functions properly. The lesson is that we should not only sign up for ShakeAlertLA, we should begin to think about what we would do if the alarm goes off. For example, we are advised to seek shelter under some protective object (a table for example) and hold on. That means that we ought to arrange our living spaces and workplaces so that protection is there. We should also remove heavy objects from high shelves so they won't land on us during a quake.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
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