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GELFAND’S WORLD - Considering that Tuesday is April Fools Day, it would be traditional to do an April Fool column to run Monday evening. But this is a year in which reality overshadows humor to such an extent that we are driven to whiskey rather than wry.
But what the heck . . .
In breaking news, Senator John Thune (R. S Dakota) spoke out against several violations of the Constitution this morning, defending the authority of the federal courts in response to administrative branch overreach. Senator Schumer, following in the footsteps of his hero Brave Sir Robin, left command of the Democratic Caucus to whoever may claim it. And we had a really cold day in Los Angeles.
In other news:
It turns out that the pair of alligators which once lived in Machado Lake managed to leave offspring of their own before being captured, and there is now a thriving colony of mega-alligators whose growth has been stimulated by the DDT accumulation in the L.A. Harbor. It is thought that the now-giant alligators, annoyed by shipping traffic, migrated up the L.A. River and have colonized the L.A. storm drain system across from the old County USC Hospital. The only thing holding them back is that they are being forced to compete with a surviving colony of giant ants (6 to 8 foot high at the shoulder) who were spawned in the 1950s as a result of atomic testing. It's Them!
In equally likely news, Greenlanders greeted Vice President Vance and his wife with celebrations and a parade. The Greenlanders do not use ticker-tape, so their parades involve the ritual throwing of cod and mackerel. Very cold mackerel.
And in good news for this city, the leaders of the City Council today announced that they will henceforth adhere to a policy of never spending what they don't have. Meanwhile, local Channel 11 announced that should the mayor be recalled, they are offering her a job as a weather forecaster.
Trump sorta maybe kinda intends to have a third term.
Oops. That last one was a real story!
So much for April Fool.
In what should have been an April Fool stunt but isn't, the president has announced that he will present his plan for tariffs this week. The tariffs are supposed to commence on Wednesday, April 2. The announcement came with the claim that the United States and Canada are now on OK terms following a telephone conversation between Trump and the Canadian leader.
Perhaps this is all a part of what Trump thinks of as negotiating -- come out with an outrageous demand, and then allow the opposition to beg and plead with you until you get something that you actually want. The fact that world leaders are not in the third grade seems to have escaped him.
On the other hand, we did manage to accomplish the rearming of Germany.
In the meanwhile, there will be reports from Trump appointees on Tuesday which will provide the proper excuses for whatever Trump does (or does not do) on Wednesday. The more learned and experienced among us are pointing out that the Trump approach is dangerous. Will he impose tariffs on lots of countries? How high will they be? What industries will be left off the tariff list?
Notice that none of us knows the answers to these questions as of a few dozen hours from execution. That is not the way to run international negotiations on trade issues. So how are the markets reacting? Last week, I suggested that the stock market was kind of ignoring Trump's blustering over tariffs, possibly because traders had already taken the threats into effect. The old word for this is that the market had already discounted the Trump effects. Then, the next day, the market suffered big losses. Now, as of this writing, the market is fairly steady, with some indexes down, some more or less unchanged, and seemingly no sense of panic.
I suspect that traders and economists are sitting back and waiting for one more rabbit to be pulled out of the international trade hat. The other side to this story is that the stock market is off to its worst start since 2020.
The problem is that one-day and one-week fluctuations in the stock market are not the same as consumer confidence or consumer behavior: Are people holding back from buying hardware and houses and cars because they know, deep down, that we are in for another Trump recession? There is plenty of evidence that this is the case.
So the world economy and the American consumer are waiting to see what happens when Trump makes his big announcement on Wednesday (if he even does), which probably depends on what his fellow billionaires say to him over the phone between now and then.
This is no way to run a railroad -- or a country.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected])
