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BIBI'S SCHEME - Netanyahu feels that all stars are aligned together to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, but agreeing on a ceasefire with Hamas will deprive him of realizing this “historic opportunity” and jeopardize his political survival. His days of scheming have hit a dead end
The Iranian Ambassador to the UN indicated last Friday that Tehran’s response to Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh was “a matter totally unrelated” to the ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. “However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire...” The question is, will Netanyahu see that as an opportunity to go for a ceasefire to prevent Iran from attacking Israel, only symbolically, and avert a potential regional war? Or, will he deliberately torpedo the ceasefire talks to prompt Iran to retaliate to give him perhaps the last chance to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which he has been dreaming of for more than two decades?
Successive Netanyahu-led Israeli governments, in particular, have consistently portrayed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel. For Netanyahu, engaging the public in such an ominous narrative served his political purpose to present himself as Israel’s ultimate security guardian. Though a professed enemy of Israel, Iran, in possession of a nuclear weapon, is unsettling, to suggest that Iran would use such weapons against Israel is misleading and counterproductive. Tehran knows that Israel has a roaming second-strike nuclear capability, and attacking Israel with a nuclear weapon is tantamount to suicide.
To prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, Netanyahu employed every tool at his disposal to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, including the assassination of several of its top nuclear scientists, corrupting its computer processing data, raiding a secret storage building, and confiscating thousands of nuclear-related documents. Beyond that, Netanyahu waged a relentless campaign to kill the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the US and Iran, negotiated by former President Obama. In defiance of Obama, in March 2015, Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress to make his case against the Iran deal. Following the election of Trump as president, Netanyahu persuaded him to withdraw from the agreement. Subsequent negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran to restore or modify the original version of the deal failed to materialize.
Thanks to Netanyahu, who made it his life’s mission to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, his misguided efforts led to precisely the opposite results. Iran has only accelerated the enrichment of uranium, especially since the US withdrawal from the Iran deal. At present, Iran has become a de facto nuclear threshold state with the ability to produce enough purified uranium for one bomb in a few months and a nuclear warhead and delivery system within 18 months.
For Netanyahu to exonerate himself from Hamas’ horrific attack under his watch, he wants to achieve a “total victory” against Hamas, even though it is a pipedream spelled out to him by his defense minister Gallant as “nonsense.” Moreover, notwithstanding the absurdity of his thinking, Netanyahu wishes that Iran would retaliate, which will give him the rare opportunity to justifiably attack Iran and destroy many of its nuclear facilities. From his perspective, ‘such a feat’—a total victory against Hamas and destruction of much of Iran's nuclear industrial complex—will allow him to emerge as Israel’s true savior. But he needs to drag the US into the fray to achieve that.
As he sees it, the United States has already dispatched two aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Theodore Roosevelt, as well as a nuclear submarine, to the Middle East amid rising regional tensions. The deployment of this awesome force is part of a broader strategy to bolster US military presence and capabilities to deter Iran and its affiliates, Hezbollah and the Houthis, from attacking Israel ‘disproportionally’ following recent escalations of the conflict between Israel and Iran. That said, the last thing the Biden administration wants is to precipitate a regional war, which the US wants gravely to avoid.
The Biden administration has warned Netanyahu in an unusually stern tone that the coming round of talks in Doha will be the last-ditch effort by the US, Egypt, and Qatar to conclude a ceasefire and will hold him responsible if the negotiations fail to produce one. It has been customary for Netanyahu to add new conditions every time the talks about a ceasefire were about to be concluded. For the first time, Netanyahu feels trapped. If he agrees to a ceasefire, Iran may undertake only a symbolic retaliation or may even not retaliate, as a ceasefire will allow Hamas to regroup, retrain, and considerably enhance its prospect of reconstituting itself fully in Gaza, which is precisely what Iran wants. On the other hand, if Netanyahu does not agree to a ceasefire, the US will blame him, and Iran will most likely retaliate proportionally to prevent the US from entering the fray.
It would seem that Netanyahu, who considers himself a political and strategic wizard, will not have it his way this time. He is a fool to assume that he can outsmart the Iranians. They are very calculating and strategic; they are fully aware of the infighting within the Israeli government about the future of Gaza; they watch the Israeli public’s disenchantment with their government and deep concerns and anxiety about the fate of the hostages; they have a clear view of the growing tension between Biden and Netanyahu, and they are cheerfully observing the Israeli public’s divisiveness and political chaos. Ironically, Iran, not Israel, now has control over what happens next and will not play into Netanyahu’s hand.
The question now is when, if ever, Netanyahu will place his country’s national interest above his own and what price will he be willing to pay to stave off a potentially unimaginable regional conflagration that would leave Israel bloodied and scarred, shattered socially and economically, from which it will take decades to recover.
Netanyahu’s current government has no moral ground to stand on. Israel’s allies are bewildered. How is it, they ponder, that a country characterized by the former Speaker of the House, Pelosi, as the “greatest political achievement of the 20th century,” has lost its way? No one, not even Israel’s worst enemy, has inflicted as much damage to Israel’s reputation, security, and well-being more than Netanyahu.
It is not likely that Netanyahu would voluntarily leave office to prevent a potential regional war that he could precipitate because of miscalculations of Iran’s capabilities and determination not to be bullied. The disarray of the opposition parties, who have miserably failed to unite and present an alternatively sound strategy to pull Israel out of the swamp wrought by Netanyahu, is a national disgrace. It is now up to the Israeli public to rise and engage in unyielding demonstrations, civil disobedience, and general strikes to force the Netanyahu government out before Israel faces a horrific disaster.
(Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.)
[email protected] Web: www.alonben-meir.com
