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WILL PEACE PREVAIL? - President Donald Trump’s 20 point Gaza peace plan is now underway, but the jury is still out. Will the plan succeed, or will it fail because of its vagueness or deliberate Israeli actions? This is what we know so far:
- After two years of war, Hamas is still intact, and Israel has not forced the approximately 2,000,000 surviving residents of Gaza to leave.
- A 21st step, regarding Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the US dropped it at Israel’s request.
- Trump has spoken before Israel’s parliament, praising the quality of US weapons that the US provides to Israel. He later spoke before 24 world leaders in Egypt and focused on his achievements, not further details of his sketchy peace plan.
- Hamas has returned about 20 living Israeli hostages – nearly all soldiers -- to Israel and is working with other Palestinian groups in Gaza to locate and return the bodies of Israelis who died in captivity.
- Gazan Palestinians have begun to return to their former homes, only to find rubble, dead bodies, and destroyed infrastructure, but no rebuilding plan.
While we don’t know the end of this story, there are 19 more steps, and many things could fail. Meanwhile, in his speech before Israel’s parliament, Trump asked Israel’s ceremonial President to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu in his corruption trial.
What else could derail Trump’s plan? These are only some of the bumps in the road.
First, if Israel, with US help, again attacks Iran, the Trump peace plan could also go up in flames.
Second, if Israel continues its attacks in Gaza, Trump’s plan could fail.
Third, if Palestinian criminal gangs in Gaza, which the Israeli military has cultivated, are not brought to heel by Hamas, Trump’s plan could also self-destruct.
Fourth, unless the 157 countries that have recognized a Palestinian state that does not yet exist step up their game, the Trump peace plan could fizzle out.
Firth, since the Trump peace plan does not include a Palestinian state, and instead relies on a technocratic administration overseen by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Trump, the 20 step peace plan could go belly up because it is based on a colonial model.
Sixth, while Israel and the US failed to defeat Hamas, they did destroy 90 percent of Gaza’s housing, plus nearly all infrastructure and communal buildings. Until the Gaza Strip is fully repaired – for which there are no details – the 2,000,000 survivors could engage in open rebellion.
So where does that leave us? Even if the Trump plan works in the short-term, its long-term prospects are extremely doubtful.
Not only could any of the above six points sandbag the peace plan, but the rulers of adjacent countries, all of which depend on the US military for survival, could be overthrown. The governments of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all hang-on by a thread, not the consent of their population. If one or more of these governments fall, Trump or his successor face the choice of direct US military intervention or allowing the new government(s) to continue, despite their disagreements with Israel and the US over Gaza.
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that direct US military intervention would succeed. As the US empire declines, its ability to control rapidly changing events also declines. For example, Afghanistan’s Taliban waged a successful 20 year war against the United States. The same for Iraq and Libya. The former is controlled by Iran, and the latter is now ruled by two different governments at each other’s throats.
Conclusion. Murphy’s Law, "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." definitely applies to the Trump peace plan. Don’t be surprised if a year from now it will be a fading memory, with the situations in Gaza and the West Bank unchanged.
(Victor Rothman is a California-based policy analyst and a regular contributor to CityWatchLA.com.)
