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PLANNING WATCH - The mainstream media is good for human interest stories and press conferences, but not the two underlying causes of LA’s frequent wildfires:
· Cities that permit private homes in fire-prone areas.
· Climate change.
This is why I recommend this 2019 article in New York Magazine: “Los Angeles Fire Season Is Beginning Again. And It Will Never End - A bulletin from our Climate Future.” It explains why wildfires will continue to overwhelm the Los Angeles region.
According to the media, unpredictable natural events, like the current drought, plus anecdotes about arson and looting, are the main story. If you prefer finger-pointing, you can easily find criticisms of LA Mayor Bass, but this is a side-show. It obscures climate issues and generations of irresponsible decisions to permit homes in Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones. Wildfires will continue to get worse, even if local government somehow does everything right.
Bad Planning: Hillside areas, such as Malibu and the Pacific Palisades, should have remained open space or become parks. They should not have been transformed into fancy residential neighborhoods that regularly go up in flames. But the real estate lobby continues to play a major role in local government.
In The Lever, Katia Schwenk recently wrote:
“Developers and real interests crushed efforts to limit development in high fire risk areas – including the neighborhoods now in ashes . . . In recent years, at every turn, efforts to reduce high-fire-rise development have been stymied by powerful real estate and construction interests. The industry has successfully fought against limits on development for wildfire safety and even beat back safety standards for houses in fire-prone areas . . .”
Wildfires in and around Los Angeles are frequent, and several of the most affluent areas that recently burned – like the Pacific Palisades neighborhood and the neighboring city of Malibu – have long been deemed a high fire risk, have been built into canyons and foothills where wildfires are inevitable.
Schwenk closed with a powerful point: Weaker wildfire safety standards, proposed by the California Building Industry Association, are based on the myth that developers can safely build houses deep into fires zones, despite the enormous health and financial hardship caused by current wildfires.
The YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard) justification for real estate development in fire-prone areas. Lobbyists, developers, City Hall officials, and civil servants who sign off on expensive houses in fire zones, frequently mention the region’s housing crisis. These claims, however, are really their campaign to justify building highly profitable houses in hazardous areas. This is because the homeless and overcrowded – nearly all of whom are extremely low income -- cannot afford to buy or rent the expensive houses that developers build in dangerous neighborhoods, like the Pacific Palisades. No matter how many luxurious houses they build there, the shortage of affordable houses that the homeless and overcrowded can afford will remain.
Climate Change: This year the Los Angeles region has had virtually no rain. As of mid-January, the city and surrounding areas are bone dry. According to LA Times climate reporter, Sammy Roth, “Weather whiplash of two wet winters, followed by this year’s drought, is a hallmark of global warming.”
The State of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment came to a similar conclusion:
“Dry and wet extremes are both expected to increase in the future. . . dry years are also projected to increase over southern California, potentially a doubling or more in frequency by the late-21st century.”
The following 2019 chart from the State’s Wildfires and Climate Change: California’s Energy Future demonstrates how climate change has contributed to California wildfires. This chart is based on 2015 data, but if we extend the trend line, climate change could now play a role in nearly half of California’s wildfires.
Conclusion: There are culprits responsible for the ongoing wildfires. They are the “Drill, baby, drill” and “Build, baby, build” interest groups. Their enablers, in Congress and local government, celebrate fossil fuel extraction and residential construction in vulnerable areas. Today they are riding high, but they can’t stop the doomsday clock. Until stopped, the consequences of their actions could result in societal failure, already happening in Southern California.
(Dick Platkin ([email protected]) is a retired LA city planner, who reports on local planning issues. He is a board member of United Neighborhoods for Los Angeles (UN4LA). Previous columns are available at the CityWatchLA archives.)
