CommentsVIEW FROM HERE-All politicians’ favorability ratings fluctuate, often based on factors beyond their control.
In pre-pandemic January 2020, Governor Newsom’s approval rating among likely voters was at 48%, which was up from only 43% in January 2019 but one year later in January 2021, when the Pandemic was subsiding, Newsom was up to 52%.
On February 3, 2021, Mark Baldassare, writing for PPIC predicted:
“Assuming there will be a governor’s recall election in 2021, the political wildcard is the status of COVID-19 in California. In the January (2021) PPIC Survey, about half of likely voters say that COVID-19 is the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on in 2021.” (PPIC stands for Public Policy Institute of California, a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank)
In May and June 2021, the Recall effort was trailing by 10%, at the time CDC’s Walensky made her outlandishly incompetent statement that the vaxed could go unmasked indoors. CDC Walensky’s extreme folly was instantly apparent. She guaranteed that the unvaxed would go unmasked and as night follows day, the infection rate would increase and she gave aid and comfort to the enemy of sane public health by sabotaging mask mandates
It was one thing for a mentally challenged Trump to make absurd pronouncements, but for the CDC Director to make such a statement with no supportive evidence and with plenty of evidence that it was extraordinarily unwise required Pres. Biden to take immediate corrective action. He dithered and did nothing. We are now deep into a fourth surge with no sane national policy to stop the spread. Vaccinations take hold slowly even for those who have been double vaxed. While a few medical institutions like Kaiser Permanente and an occasional public health expert point out a looming danger, the CDC itself has covered up a likely scenario. With the vaxed getting the Delta Variant, the nation runs the substantial risk that the Omega Variant will emerge from the vaxed.
Quite dangerously, the administration pretends that there is no risk when the vaxed get Covid since they seldom become very sick and almost never die. In early January 2020, no American was getting Covid-19 and no one was dying. Because Pres. Trump mislead Americans, hundreds of thousands of people died and now the Biden Administration is headed down a similar path. The real national threat of the vaxed getting the virus is that each time a vaxed person gets the Delta Variant, the virus has the chance to mutate into the presently non-existent Omega Variant.
Now that we are significantly increasing the number of partially vaxed people, it should be easier of the Delta Variant to mutate into a more infectious and more lethal variant so that when it then infects fully vaxed persons, that new variant can more easily mutate into the Omega Variant which is completely unaffected by the vaccines.
CDC’s Walensky’s Gross Incompetence Undermined Newsom’s Favorability Rating
Presently 47% of likely voters support recalling Newsom. But for the fourth surge, the Recall would have floundered. If the Omega Variant does emerge, it is highly unlikely it will be recognized before the Recall election. The situation which is harmful to Gov Newsom is that Covid continues to rampage during the election and tips the Recall election against him. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. Voters do not really care whether a Governor is responsible for the fourth surge If they can lash out and hurt someone, the nearest authority figure will do.
The Current Trending Towards a Successful Recall Adds Momentum to the Recall
It gives dissatisfied voters the feeling that maybe their vote will matter, and nothing increases voter turnout more than being able to make an impact. There are Blacks who will support Larry Elder for no reason other than he is Black, unaware that he would reduce the minimum wage to $0. While the Governor lacks the power to abolish the minimum wage, Elder’s desire places him into the category of ”Economic Terrorist.” He would further racial segregation in education by allowing Whites to establish de facto white schools with state money, and he’d crack down on crime with harsher and longer sentences for minorities.
While Black jurors tend to be among the most sophisticated in Los Angeles County, it is doubtful that they will have reliable evidence about Larry Elder. Thus, they may not appreciate the harm that Elder would do. Unlike Ronald Reagan who at least had been the head of the Screen Actors Guild and unlike Arnold Schwarzenegger who had extensive experience in business from helping to make bodybuilding a respected endeavor to producing blockbuster Hollywood movies, Elder has no experience in running anything other than his mouth. If the recall succeeds, Elder becomes Governor. If California gains a hold on the Pandemic, however, Newsom’s chances of success improve and he may survive CDC’s Walensky’s reckless incompetence.
Today’s Mask Saves Your Life Today; Today’s Vax Saves Your Life in Six Weeks
Without a short-term strategy, we may not live long enough for a long-range solution. Had CDC’s Walenksy not sabotaged Biden’s Mask Mandate, more people would have masked up and more people would have been vaxed as July 4th approached. Masks and social distancing stop viral transmission immediately, proving time for people to receive the two doses of the most effective vaxes, Pfizer and Moderna. After the second dose, another two weeks is necessary before full immunity. Thus, getting vaxed is not a short-term strategy.
Everyone Needs to Mask up until the Nation Reaches Herd Immunity
The CDC has destroyed any hope of a national mask mandate, leaving it to individual states and often individual counties and increasingly to private businesses to have mask mandates. California continues to follow Walensky’s horrendous claim that the vaxed need not mask up. Had Biden fired Walensky in May 2021 and retracted her statement, California would have no fourth surge and Newsom would not be in danger of a successful recall. Newsom realistically fears that if he issues a mask mandate while the CDC still has none, that will only incite the anti-maskers to support the Recall with more vigor.
(Richard Lee Abrams is an attorney and lives in Los Angeles.)
