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WESTSIDE VOICE - With just 25% of the March 5th Primary vote in his column, embattled incumbent LA District Attorney George Gascon now finds himself in a one-on-one matchup with Nathan Hochman, the former federal prosecutor and Assistant US Attorney General who has positioned himself as the non-partisan, “no politics, just results” alternative to the county’s left-leaning law enforcement head.
Out of some 1.4 million votes cast last month, Gascon finished first; but only received some 370,000 votes leaving 75% of the electorate preferring someone else.
Hochman finished second with 16% or some 235,000 votes.
But in a poll memo dated March 3rd, by Remington Research conducted on behalf of the challenger Hochman (see below) , the incumbent remains woefully unpopular with voters as respondents had a 19% approval rating while 56% viewed him unfavorably. In clear contrast, Hochman has a 22% favorable factor with just 12% unfavorable.
The poll numbers closely resembled the actual primary tally on March 5th.
Gascon continues to be upside down by 37 points and the reasoning for that standing is that LA voters are feeling “less safe” since he took office some four years ago. For the only issue or perception that stands out is that only 9% of respondents feel more safe with Gascon in charge while a whopping 59% feel less safe.
On the critical re-elect question, Gascon who escaped two attempted recalls is again upside down by a 22-57% margin or 35 points.
For Gascon finds himself in a historically bad place for a sitting incumbent in a presidential cycle where turnout should be strong.
With 24% of the electorate remaining undecided, the challenging Hochman still has a comfortable 51-25% lead, and according to these numbers Gascon is trailing Hochman among every single demographic and political party registration.
Including registered Democrats by 9 points.
The only batch of voters Gascon is leading is with self-described “progressive” or liberal Democrats.
According to sources, the Hochman campaign is already again in the field testing voters for the upcoming fall contest as the campaign reenergizes for the spring and summer months. Hochman is currently meeting with voters in small groups while continuing to fundraise intensively.
With the runoff a virtual restart, the individual campaigns will be limited in those fundraising efforts with a reported ceiling of $2.5 million and personal contributions capped at $1,500. But it is the unlimited fundraising ability of independent expenditure committees and Super PAC’s that will play a far larger role in the dollars allocated to what will be a financial windfall of campaign expenditures in this race between a liberal leftist and the right-of-center, newly minted independent.
Hochman was the Republican nominee for the 2022 California Attorney General election, ultimately losing the contest to Democrat Rob Bonta. Hochman announced his candidacy for Los Angeles County District Attorney on April 3, 2023 and was endorsed by former LA County DA Steve Cooley, and has raised more funds than all the other candidates in that successful March contest with some $2.1M by the campaign and another $650,000 in independent expenditures.
In contrast, Gascon trailed badly financially speaking as an incumbent as he finished fifth in the field, with just under $450,000 according to published reports.
The poll had 861 likely 2024 Primary Election voters. The survey was weighted to match expected turnout demographics and a +/-3% margin of error and a 95% level of confidence. To date none of the losing candidates from the March 5th primary have endorsed either Gascon or Hochman as of this writing.
Hochman has received the endorsement of the Association of Deputy District Attorneys or ADDA.
“Nathan Hochman stands out as the preferred choice for advancing a pro-labor agenda and for promoting a positive, open, and cooperative engagement with both the ADDA and its members,” the organization said. “We value his dedication to recognizing the efforts of our prosecutors and are eager to cultivate a beneficial relationship that serves both our members and the public effectively.”
(Nick Antonicello is a thirty-one year resident of Venice who covers all things governmental and political effecting the Westside. Have a take or a tip? Contact him via e-mail at [email protected]).
