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Wed, Sep

Flip the House: California Dems Gear Up for Crucial Midterms

BCK FILE-Following a bruising political year, the midterm elections of 2018 are crucial, especially to states like California. With the executive and legislative branches controlled by the GOP majority, any judicial appointments are likely to follow the suit. 

The GOP and Trump Administration policies have the potential to hurt California on numerous levels, from immigration and health care to the tax bill. Californians, along with residents and homeowners in states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois that have high state income tax and higher home values and/or real estate taxes, will be impacted by the ceiling on property tax and state income tax deductions that may end up hurting the real estate market, as well. 

It’s no coincidence that Donald Trump is the first president since Eisenhower to have not touched down in the Golden State during his first year in office. He barely tweeted recognition of the acres of wildfires throughout the state. For California, flipping the seats in the midterms is crucial on many levels.

For the Dems to flip the House in November, the party will need to defend eight seats and turn over an additional 24 to gain a majority. There are 468 seats in the U.S. Congress -- 33 in the Senate and all 435 in the House – up for grabs next fall. The GOP comes in with a 51-seat majority in the Senate to 49 Democrats (following Doug Jones’ win in Alabama) including two Independents. 

Going into the November 6 elections, the GOP holds 241 seats in the House; the Democrats hold 194 seats. If we follow the historical trajectory, the Democratic party should gain seats in the House, because ever since 1934, the party of a newly elected president traditionally loses seats in the next midterms. Only twice since then has the president’s party gained seats -- in 1934, following Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election and in 2002 following the election of George W. Bush. President Trump’s significantly low approval rating could further impact this trend. 

Incumbents tend to have an advantage in terms of larger campaign war chests and recognition. Most political pundits see 40 competitive races, of which 32 are held by the GOP and eight by Democrats. The Democrats will need to capture at least 24 of these seats to flip the House. 

However, a stream of office holders has resigned or announced they will not be seeking reelection in 2018, including GOP senators Bob Corker (R-TN) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ), as well as others in competitive districts. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) has said he might retire following the midterms. Sexual harassment allegations have caused several lawmakers to leave Congress early, including Al Franken (D-WI), Trent Franks (R-AZ), Blake Fahrenthold (R-TX), and Ruben Kihuen (D-NV) who announced he will not seek reelection in 2018.

The Democrat strategy is to concentrate on the 23 districts in which voters elected Republicans in the Congressional races but where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump. Seven of those seats are here in California, in and around traditionally conservative Orange County where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened a satellite office. 

If you remember, in 2016, Orange County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 80 years. Flipping those seats is reliant on getting out the vote and unifying the party’s liberal and centrist interests. 

The 7 races in California to keep an eye on are: 

Ed Royce, 39th Congressional District 

Dana Rohrabacher, 48th Congressional District 

Mimi Walters, 45th Congressional District 

(Royce, Rohrabacher, and Walters represent Orange County.) 

Darrell Issa, 49th Congressional District (south toward San Diego) 

Steve Knight, 25th Congressional District (Santa Clarita Valley) 

David Valadao, 21st Congressional District (Central Valley) 

Jeff Denham, 10th Congressional District (Central Valley) 

We’ll be looking at important races throughout the country needed to Flip the House and at a Southern California mother/daughter team traveling to cover women running for Congressional seats throughout the country in Women2018. 

Stay tuned.

 

(Beth Cone Kramer is a Los Angeles writer and a CityWatch columnist.) Edited for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

-cw

Five Things a Californian Should Know Now About Rent Control

CAL MATTERS-One way or another, two words are likely to dominate the complicated politics of California’s housing crisis in 2018: rent control. 

Next week state lawmakers will hear a proposal from Assemblyman Richard Bloom, Democrat from Santa Monica, that would allow cities to dramatically restrict what landlords can charge tenants year-over-year. The bill couldn’t even get a hearing last year amid intense opposition from landlords. 

But looming over legislators’ heads this time around is a potential ballot initiative supported by tenants’ rights groups that would do much of the same. If the bill stalls, experts say there’s a good chance you’ll see rent control on your November ballot. 

What should your average Californian know about a rent control debate poised to gobble up so much political oxygen? Here are five key points: 

  1. Under current state law, a wide swath of California’s housing stock can’t be placed under rent control. 

Rent control or rent stabilization policies come in different shapes and sizes depending on the city you may find them in. Some place a hard cap on how much a landlord can raise rents year over year, others may be indexed to inflation. Currently 15 California cities have some form of rent control on the books, including major population centers like San Francisco, Los Angeles and Oakland. 

But current state law prohibits any locality in California from imposing rent control on properties built after 1995. That’s the year the state passed the Costa-Hawkins Act, which also prohibited cities that already had rent control laws on their books from updating them for new properties. Thus, in Los Angeles. rent control only applies to buildings constructed before 1978, and in San Francisco, rent control only applies to buildings built before 1980. 

A bit of background: After some cities responded to tenants’ concerns about rising rents in the 1970s and 80s by adopting rent control ordinances, real estate interests first tried to stop them in the courts. Unsuccessful there, they focused on the Legislature. Bills to preempt local rent control would routinely pass the Assembly and then die in the Senate, held up by then-Senate President Pro Tem David Roberti, a West Hollywood Democrat. The year after he was termed out of office, Costa-Hawkins passed by a one-vote margin. 

Both Bloom’s bill (as it is currently written) and the initiative would fully repeal Costa Hawkins, massively expanding the number of properties on which cities could impose rent control. That includes single-family homes, which Costa-Hawkins also excluded from rent control protections. 

  1. Most economists—left or right—think rent control is bad. 

Economists have a hard time agreeing on most things. But regardless of partisan leaning, most economists would say rent control is not great policy. Even prominent progressives like Paul Krugman have expressed opposition to it. 

Rent control is quite literally the textbook example of a “price ceiling”– undergrad economics textbooks will often feature problem sets with questions about what’s wrong with rent control. The classic microeconomic downsides include killing the incentive to build more housing, causing landlords to neglect maintenance and repair, and inflated prices for non-rent-controlled units. A poll of ideologically diverse economists found that only 2 percent agreed with the statement that rent control had had a positive impact on housing affordability in cities like New York and San Francisco. 

  1. Scholars in other fields are generally bigger fans. And if you took away rent control, the results could be disastrous for affordability. 

Many urban planners and other scholars studying gentrification and displacement cite rent control as an effective policy to keep long-time residents in the communities in which they live and work. And because rent control has become so deeply embedded in the housing markets of some cities, taking it away—no matter how economically inefficient it may be–could spell disaster for current residents. 

The Bay Area Council Economic Institute–a business-aligned policy think tank–ran a simulation of 20 policy changes that could improve or worsen housing affordability in San Francisco. The policy that would make things worse? Getting rid of rent control, which they found would plunge 16,000 households into an unaffordable housing situation. 

  1. One of the best studies of rent control shows that it primarily benefits older households at the expense of households without rent control. 

There actually aren’t a ton of empirical studies looking at how rent control plays out in practice.

But a groundbreaking Stanford University study released last year on San Francisco’s rent control experience has shed new light on who wins and who loses from the policy. 

Looking at a roughly 20-year span of proprietary rental and migration data, the study authors found that rent-controlled tenants age 40 or over saw average savings of nearly $120,000 from rent control; by contrast, younger rent-controlled tenants only saved an average of $40,000. 

That’s because younger households were more likely to move out of rent-controlled apartments because of various life milestones—a new job, a new family, buying a house in the suburbs, etc. 

  1. The study also found that rent control paradoxically fueled gentrification, as landlords converted units to condos. 

The Stanford study also found that rent-controlled buildings were 10 percent more likely to be converted to a condominium or some other type of non-rental property, as landlords searched for ways to evade the law. Those units being drawn off the market partly drove up rental prices for tenants searching for apartments in San Francisco. In this sense, the study authors argue, rent control paradoxically contributed to the well-publicized gentrification the city has experienced over the past few decades.

While the study also found that rent-controlled tenants were more likely to stay in the city than tenants without rent control, the gap may not be as wide as you think. After 10 years, about 11 percent of tenants without rent control were living at the same San Francisco address. Tenants with rent control? Thirteen percent stayed put. 

How to participate in the debate: The rent control bill will be heard by the Assembly Housing and Community Development Committee on Thursday, Jan. 11 at 9 a.m., and will include a public comment period. You can watch the hearing—which should be pretty lively as far as legislative hearings go—here.

 

(Matt Levin is the data reporter for CALmatters where this piece was first published.) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

-cw

Are LA Coffee Shops the New Homeless Drop-In Centers?

GUEST WORDS-Recently, while visiting several different coffee shops in San Francisco, I noticed many of their restrooms have signs on the doors saying, “Closed Until Further Notice.” Upon questioning the employees, they immediately tried to re-direct me to other establishments in the neighborhood that offer public restrooms. 

When I asked if their restrooms would be repaired soon, the clerks explained they cannot keep them open because the homeless take baths in them, flooding the floors as well as shooting up drugs and throwing their dirty needles on the ground. 

The clerks are quickly learning that a homeless person has no choice but to remain dirty because of no access to baths, are compelled to sometimes steal food because of hunger, and are forced to sleep when and where they can because they have no beds like most people do. 

But the employees still must remember that their job is to take care of the paying customers who are entitled to a clean establishment with restrooms available. 

Employees told me that they often find homeless people asleep in their restrooms and to get them to leave, they sometimes need to call the police for help. 

One young clerk told me that since the homeless don’t get to bathe regularly, customers in the store complain that restrooms sometimes smell badly. He said it is easier to place an “Out of Order” sign on the door than to try and explain the situation to the paying customers who are out of luck in their need for a restroom, and frequently take out their frustrations on the employees. 

Often, he continued, homeless people fall asleep with their heads on the tables, surrounded by large garbage bags filled with their belongings; customers will not sit near them. 

In areas of cities with a large homeless population, employees not only put “Out of Order” signs on restroom doors, they remove chairs and tables, forcing customers to stand to drink their coffee, hoping to deter the poor from coming in to bathe and sleep. 

In the coffee houses that do provide chairs, employees explain that they feel sorry for the homeless who are often young people close to their own age. Sometimes they let them sleep for several hours before asking them to leave. 

Since customers will not sit near them while they sleep and often choose to leave the establishment, business in some areas is declining. I wonder if the employees’ training prepares them to gently yet firmly deal with the poor in their neighborhoods as well as serve the paying customers. 

The need for shelters for the poor is extremely critical and I applaud employees at coffee houses for trying to sensitively deal with the homeless situation, though I am certain they are not paid to both serve paying customers and interact with homeless people. 

A young woman working at one coffee shop in San Francisco shared with me that telling someone who obviously hadn’t had a bath for days to leave the establishment seemed intensely cruel to her. She is in college and this is her first job, as well as her first experience in dealing with the poor. 

At her shop, she added, they have to remove the cream after each customer uses it instead of leaving it out, because homeless people will drink it all. The clerk said there have been times she was not certain if some people were homeless or not, and found it awkward to be the judge of that. 

While many shops throw homeless people out of their stores, some teach their employees that treating all people with dignity and respect is the number one requirement of all jobs. 

Theft in some coffee shops continues to take its toll. Employees are expected to police the products on the shelves as well as keep homeless people out of their restrooms and prevent them from falling asleep in their chairs. 

All this, on top of doing normal customer service work, seems over and above the line of duty for young adults who are often trying to pay their way through college with their part-time coffee shop jobs. 

As the population of homeless people grows, we cannot simply say, “build houses for everyone” while not offering, in the meantime, ways for the poor to bathe, sleep, eat, store their belongings, as well as take care of their bodily needs, which we all have to do to survive. 

Perhaps the clerks in these coffee shops who encounter the homeless population everyday are the very ones who will lead us to much-needed solutions!

 

(Judy Joy Jones blogs on Street Spirit where is piece originated.) Edited for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

-cw

Are California’s Strongman Governors Bullying the State?

CONNECTING CALIFORNIA-Who is the most powerful governor in California history? The next one. Over the past four decades, our state’s governorship has grown so great in reach and power that it now constitutes a second American presidency. 

California governors sign international treaties and agreements, and are treated like national leaders at the biggest global gatherings. They head a state government so powerful and sophisticated that it sometimes operates as a fourth branch of American government—employing regulations, lawsuits, and the size of the California market to check the president, Congress, and even the courts. 

Here at home, our governors dominate not only politics and policy but also California’s civic conversation itself. Since trends in the electorate, the legislature, and the media all enhance the governor’s power, the next governor is likely to be even more powerful than Jerry Brown. Which is why there should be far more attention paid to the 2018 governor’s race—and to the question of whether the governorship itself has become too powerful. 

California’s centralized power contrasts with the state’s image as open and diverse, with a progressive culture and innovative technology bent on disrupting existing structures. And California has long been considered almost ungovernable—with its many different competing regions, interest groups, and local governments. 

But this diversity and complexity—and the resulting frustration about getting anything done—is at the heart of the governor’s power. Precisely because it’s so hard to get attention and to orchestrate policy among so many unruly constituencies, Californians are often desperate to find someone—or anyone—with the power and agency to make a decision and accomplish what they want. And that person has been, more and more often, the governor. 

For the past 40 years, voters, special interests, other governments, and even the legislature have been ceding powers to what was already a very strong executive position. California governors can issue executive orders, veto bills, veto particular line items in an appropriations bill, vote as a member of the Board of Regents, set special elections, and declare emergencies. Of course, they can grant pardons, commute sentences, and call up the National Guard, too. 

Most formidably, the governor has the power to appoint more than 4,000 positions, including all judges, giving him power to control policy in areas from school curriculum to coastal protection. The governor also can fill vacancies in any statewide office, including the attorney general or controller. The only politician in this country with more appointment power is the mayor of Chicago. 

In the 1970s, the governor’s authority grew as power was transferred from local governments to Sacramento in two big shifts. First, state courts, in the name of making school funding equal, took funding power away from local governments. Then voters, in the name of protecting homeowners and taxpayers, passed Proposition 13, which effectively took power over taxation away from local governments. 

As Sacramento made more decisions for Californians, governors made more use of the full power of their offices to get the upper hand. Pete Wilson pioneered the use of executive orders for a host of vital policy changes. Gray Davis devised new ways to intervene in the legislative process, dismissing protests from lawmakers about his imperiousness by declaring: “Their job is to implement my vision.” 

Arnold Schwarzenegger combined his celebrity, his wealth, and his office’s power to devise ballot initiative campaigns that gave him greater leverage with the legislature. Schwarzenegger also pushed through climate change legislation that empowers the state’s muscular regulatory agencies to act as both money collectors and enforcers of one of the most complicated environmental regimes on earth. 

The state’s regular budget crises also enhanced gubernatorial power; governors often demanded wider room to manage the budget and the state’s cash flow, as the price of compromise with the legislature. Governor Brown also has bargained more authority; the state’s new law to establish a $15 minimum wage by 2022 gives the governor the power to delay the hike for different reasons. 

Then there are the voters who, disgusted by gridlock that was easily blamed on the legislature, have often granted more authority to governors without even thinking about it. The most dramatic example was when voters installed legislative term limits in 1990. With that change, lawmakers and staffs could stay for only a few years at a time, whereas in the executive branch the governor could rely on department heads and powerful regulators who had long careers and inside knowledge. 

The legislature has failed to counter such executive power—its relatively small number of lawmakers (California has the country’s smallest legislature on a per-voter basis) is stretched thin, and has little time for detailed hearings, investigation, or oversight of the governor and his administration. The legislature also doesn’t have the same institutional infrastructure to produce data and reports to guide policymaking; when legislators make laws and budgets, they often rely on the executive branch’s numbers. 

As Sacramento made more decisions for Californians, governors made more use of the full power of their offices to get the upper hand. 

More recent good government reforms also have weakened the legislature and thus strengthened the governor. In 2008, voters stripped the legislature of perhaps its greatest power—the power to draw legislative districts—and gave it to an independent commission. And in 2010, voters got rid of the requirement of a two-thirds vote to pass a budget, which had given the minority party in the legislature considerable power to challenge the governor. 

These days, the opposition has little juice. All the governor needs is the support of the two leaders of the majority party in the legislature. In this era of one-party Democratic control, that majority party is the governor’s own party, further enhancing his power. 

California’s diminished media also reinforces the notion that the governor is the only game in town. With fewer reporters covering Sacramento, the governor has become the only politician who is covered regularly. Even State Senator Kevin de León, who has been the most influential legislator of this decade and is now running for U.S. Senate, remains little known across the state. 

In much of Sacramento, the power of the governor is considered a natural and even good thing. In a state so big, goes the argument, it’s good to have one elected official—the governor—who can focus attention and accountability. 

Of course, that’s only true if Californians pick a governor who can use that power responsibly. And right now, few of us are paying much attention to the gubernatorial contest. Instead, Californians are deeply worried about all the power in the American presidency, and how it might be misused by the current occupant of the White House. 

But the perils of runaway executive power aren’t limited to Washington D.C. Pay attention, California, because it could happen here.

 

(Joe Mathews writes the Connecting California column for Zócalo Public Square.

Primary Editor: Lisa Margonelli. Secondary Editor: Reed Johnson.) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

-cw

10 Critical Keys to Unlocking a Better and Happier Los Angeles in 2018

ALPERN AT LARGE--There are many things for Los Angeles (and, of course, its citizens) to be proud of as we enter this Brave New World of 2018.  But the unhappiness of those who live in our ever-more-risky, ever-more-complicated reality is contrary to any suggestions that we are doing just fine in the City of the Angels.  So in no particular order, here are a few hopeful resolutions to consider: 

1) Mayor Garcetti and the City Council SHOULD crow about the 2028 Olympics, but will it be a financial and political boon, or a bane, to current and future Angelenos?  We ARE one of the few cities best-equipped to have an Olympics, but will the preparations and operations leave us in the financial dust, or more ready than ever to be a vibrant and ongoing tourist/business destination that ranks high among our national and global peers? 

2) One can be kind, liberal, and smart ... and tough (!) in addressing homelessness!  We passed Measure H, and HHH, to combat homelessness, but what is our goal...to make it worse?  To become a homeless magnet for the nation?  Do we have the ability and moral fortitude to reach out to those with ties to our communities...while demanding that others not be drawn here for "free stuff"?  What about the rights and responsibilities of ALL of us? 

3) Will we provide that magic path to solving the illegal immigration problem, or just do the political and economic dance that rewards lawbreaking while ignoring the very human needs of those here legally and illegally?  Shall we reward employers who knowingly break the law?  Can we provide a tough list of demands for those here illegally to show they're willing to fight and earn their way to true American citizenship, and unite us all? 

4) If Metro gives us a slow ride to nowhere, as opines Susan Shelley of the Daily News? then it's up to our civic and elected leaders to show the way.  Expedite the rail lines through Downtown and to LAX so that there is the critical backbone and logic to our countywide mass transit system. 

5) When we will grow up and recognize that neither cars nor trains nor buses are "bad", and that they work best in tandem?  All worldwide cities have and employ all forms of transportation to provide options...so neither parking, bus stops, sidewalks, nor bicycle amenities are "bad".  All must be first-rate, and all must be respectful to those who use those forms of transportation. 

6) Developers and enabling political and bureaucratic leaders, when they build without necessary supportive infrastructure, aren't being "woke" or "progressive"... they're just being irresponsible and environmentally-horrible. 

7) "Affordable housing" requires common-sense and better definition to the average Angeleno:  there's student affordable housing, there's senior affordable housing, and there's workforce affordable housing.  Otherwise, it's just MORE housing, and if we're overbuilding near the ocean to make more money, then call it what it is: gentrification. 

8) We have a City Attorney whose job it is to represent the City Council and the Mayor (and their staffs), and we have NO city position to allow ordinary Angelenos of lower to middle-class status the financial means to defend themselves against the City and developers when the latter breaks the law.  We don't need an ACLU ... we need an agency or legitimate lawyers and paralegals to represent the Citizenry. 

9) We have a pathetic, underfunded, and unempowered City entity called DONE, aka Empower LA.  Many heroes work within that entity, but the understaffing and overreliance on volunteer efforts taxes and prevents these individuals from allowing the representation for which this entity was originally intended.  Shall we continue this unsustainable pattern, or truly empower our civic leaders? 

10) Both the private and public sector need the tools, guidance, and opportunities to achieve and sustain middle class status ... including retirement benefits that should be available to ALL Angelenos.  How long can our City leaders defend and sustain the public sector on the backs of the taxpaying majority ... and will we NEVER see an incentivized system to allow private-sector individuals and businesses a better system than, and supplemental to, Social Security, the way we see with our public sector employees? 

Here's to a vibrant and innovative, and to a happy and healthy, 2018!!!

 

(Kenneth S. Alpern, M.D. is a dermatologist who has served in clinics in Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside Counties, and is a proud father and husband to two cherished children and a wonderful wife. He is also a Westside Village Zone Director and Board member of the Mar Vista Community Council (MVCC), previously co-chaired its Planning and Outreach Committees, and currently is Co-Chair of its MVCC Transportation/Infrastructure Committee. He was co-chair of the CD11 Transportation Advisory Committee and chaired the nonprofit Transit Coalition, and can be reached at [email protected]. He also co-chairs the grassroots Friends of the Green Line at www.fogl.us. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Dr. Alpern.)

-cw

Transportation Prediction for 2018: Controversy and Uncertainty

ALPERN AT LARGE--It's safe to say that 2017 wasn't much less of an emotional roller-coaster than 2016, and perhaps that was by intent.  Americans appear, perhaps more for the better than the worse, focused more on politics and the "soap opera" in D.C. than their previous devotion to "reality T.V.”, and all political forces (along with their media allies/patrons) are milking that focus for ratings and dollars. (Photo above: Assembled dignitaries break ceremonial ground on the 4-mile Purple Line subway extension in front of LA County Museum in the Miracle Mile.) 

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Pigs at a Trough - Tax Style

EASTSIDER--Watching the Republican establishment surrounding President Trump, falling all over themselves in a sickening fawning fest,  I was reminded of a group of terrified generals doing the same to Idi Amin Dada or Muammar Gaddafi. 

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LA’s ‘Experts’ are 97% Wrong on Development  

STACK AND PACK HOUSING--2017 was a banner year for the top down crowd. California Senate Bill SB35 was especially fruitful in negating local control and zoning requirements. The City of Los Angeles acquiesced like a speculator being offered a hot Internet Coin and added its own legislation to make sure Communities could only opt in. Uncle Joe (Stalin) is smiling somewhere knowing that citizens must endure these new outrages to common sense and civic pride for the sake of collectivist housing that is unnecessary, unaffordable and mostly ugly. 

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2018: We Still Have a Chance

BELL VIEW--My grandfather, Larry Fogarty, fought in the Battle of the Bulge. He didn't volunteer -- he had a baby at home -- he was drafted and he did his time. I doubt he ever thought of himself as a patriot, and he never gave any indication that he felt he was part of some special generation of Americans. He just did his job and never talked about it. When he came home, he joined the Chicago Police Force and never exhibited much desire to do anything more than cash his paycheck and watch the ballgame. The War took all the fight out of him and quenched any thirst he may have once had for adventure. 

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2018 Tax Chaos

PERSPECTIVE--Whatever Kim Jong-un does in 2018, it will likely not impact Americans as much as the new tax reform bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That’s not to understate the potential for disorder the Rocket Man might be capable of unleashing, but most experts would agree he has not reached the point where he can blackmail the United States and his neighbors in Asia.

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2018 Slate of Ballot Measures Still Cloudy

CAL MATTERS COMMENTARY-With 2018 just days away, we pretty much know who will be running for which major California offices next year – except for the intentions of billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who’s making all the moves, but remains coy about what, if anything, he’ll do. 

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2017: LA Leads the Nation in the Year of Resistance

BCK FILE--2017 was a Year of Resistance and Los Angeles was certainly among the epicenters. The election of Donald J. Trump, who uses Twitter to fire off missives against anyone who questions his policies or role in Russiagate, has produced an administration and party aimed at destroying all protections, so Angelenos have been gathering in Pershing Square and other locations throughout Southern California to express our opinions.

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2017:  A Fake Year?

GELFAND’S WORLD-The end of the year column is something of a CityWatch tradition. I'd like to contribute a few paragraphs on what is to come in 2018 and a few paragraphs summarizing some themes I've tried to develop this year. 

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