CommentsPOST ELECTION 2020-“It ain’t over til it’s over,” said Yogi Berra, but the widening lead for Joe Biden in recent polls suggests it might not be too early to start thinking about what to expect in the 78 days from November 3 to January 3.
It will not be pretty, but it will be better than the alternative if the polls are right.
Uncertainty
It is now a near certainty that Republicans will challenge election results even if the Democratic ticket wins in a landslide. Trump and Biden are both hiring lawyers and preparing for a lengthy legal battle, one that could put the 2000 election to shame. Expect challenges to millions of votes cast by mail. Also expect allegations of ballot-box stuffing, stolen ballots, and more. All this is likely to last at least a month and perhaps longer if Trump declines to concede defeat.
Unrest
Members of Proud Boys and Boogaloo may not vote themselves but will be out in force if Trump suffers a colossal loss. Riots and looting could be widespread, especially if Trump expresses support or encouragement for it. Protests against election results could get violent if they conflict with anticipated celebrations of Biden’s win.
Celebration
Expect dancing in front of the White House unless Trump sends in federal troops to stop it. Similar celebrations, some spontaneous and others organized by progressive groups, are likely across the country. Among those celebrating will be Black Lives Matter supporters, women’s rights, climate change supporters, and people just happy that the Trump era is over.
As noted above, a clash between celebrants and protestors could make the night of November 3 and the morning of November 4 a particularly troubling period.
Cabinet Appointees
Those looking for a clear indication of how far left the Biden administration might go will be watching cabinet nominations closely. Expect prominent announcements that will please Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for Secretaries for Interior, Treasury, Homeland Security, Attorney General, and the EPA.
Also, expect an exceptionally diverse cabinet. Women could be the majority. People of color will also be well-represented.
Open questions include whether Elizabeth Warren would like to serve as Treasury Secretary. Could Eric Holder return as AG? What job will Susan Rice get? Also, President Biden will choose a teacher to head the Department of Education.
A Quick Start
Rumors suggest the Biden transition team is already at work reviewing resumes for the thousands of Presidential appointees. Between now and election day, he will quietly step up the pace. Biden will send hundreds of nominees to the Senate days after Inauguration Day.
A Democratic Senate
The anticipated scope of Trump’s defeat will give Democrats a majority in the Senate. Charles Schumer (D-NY) will become Majority Leader. Expect the Senate to hit the ground running. Major legislation, including another stimulus bill, some initial Green Deal bills, and similar legislation could be law by the end of February.
Disappearing Trump Voters
While Trumpism will, unfortunately, not be dead, it will be difficult in some circles to find anyone who will admit they voted for Trump. Small business owners who liked the Trump tax and deregulation initiatives will continue to approve his tax legislation and judge appointments but disavow other aspects of Trump’s behavior.
The Republican party is already starting to realize the 2020 Trump campaign’s damage to their party. A new generation of Republicans will step up to steer the party away from the worst, most controversial Trump policies. It is far from clear that they will be successful. Will those disgusted with Trumpism but not ready to move left establish a new centrist party?
The Risk of Predictions
Predictions have a way of haunting those who make them. Donald Trump surprised pollsters and pundits in 2016. While unlikely, it could happen again, the inherent evil of polls suggesting a Biden landslide is that they could encourage some of us, even in battleground states, to stay home. If that happens, it is time to weep for America.
(John Dean is a Washington policy wonk, writer, blogger, and lover of nature, music, and Goldendoodles. This piece appeared on Medium.com. Photo: joebiden.com.) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.
