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GELFAND’S WORLD - As you all undoubtedly know by now, Donald Trump has been indicted by a Manhattan Grand Jury under the leadership of District Attorney Alvin Bragg. The details are not as yet known because the indictment is sealed, but it is obviously about the making of at least one political payoff. Such a payoff may have been in violation of tax and/or election rules.
The nation has been waiting to see whether there would be an indictment, or would there even be several indictments, considering that there are multiple legal concerns facing the former president:
a) the current indictment in New York City
b) the question of whether Trump will be indicted in Georgia for attempted election tampering
c) the question as to whether the Department of Justice will bring charges against Trump for his inaction during the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots or for some as yet undetermined actions in support or the riots
But there is one more question which may (thankfully) be answered in a positive way over the next few days. That question is whether the former president will be able to rally his followers to engage in acts of violence and rebellion, the way they did on January 6. In his latest round of campaigning, Trump has been talking about the potential Manhattan indictment, vacillating back and forth as to whether it's a witch hunt and fake, or whether it's already been called off. But Trump has made clear that he expects his supporters to rise up and take action to prevent the government from prosecuting him.
So, there it is, right in front of us. Will the Trump followers try to pull another January 6, or will they sit it out?
My prediction is that they will sit it out for the most part. We will see a few individuals, or a few hundred individuals, doing minor acts of violence and doing a lot of screaming and posturing. But if the right wing has learned its lessons from the January 6 prosecutions, we will not be seeing a serious uprising by serious revolutionaries, and this in spite of Trump's fevered imaginings. For another thing, a substantial number of the crazier Trump supporters are in prison, or on probation, or subject to the terms set by a judge.
And if Trump fails to rouse his followers to riot and rebellion, it will be his most serious loss since the 2020 elections, because he will have been revealed to be a hollow candidate and a hollow man.
Just for the record, he is the first American ex-president to be indicted for a serious crime.
(Bob Gelfand writes on science, culture, and politics for CityWatch. He can be reached at [email protected].)
