LA SCHOOLS AND OTHER MUSINGS-“Given the positive state tax collections of recent months, there is a significant potential of higher–than–projected state revenue—particularly for the current fiscal year (2014–15). Surprisingly perhaps, these trends pose a risk for the state budget because higher revenues in 2014–15 boost ongoing spending on schools and community colleges under Proposition 98, potentially making it harder for the state to balance its budget in 2015–16 and beyond.
While a great opportunity for schools and community colleges, higher revenues at this time could mean that actions—such as cuts to non–Proposition 98 programs—may be necessary to address a budget problem in 2015–16.”
– California Legislative Analyst’s Office: THE 2015-16 BUDGET: Possible May Revision Scenarios (April 7, 2015)
Last week the Legislative Analyst’s Office issued the above report forecasting a surge in California revenues of perhaps multiples of billions of dollars. (The LAO issues “forecasts” using research and the scientific method – “predicting” is apparently done with tea leaves and divining rods.)
This is good news for public education because of the formula in Proposition 98 (Mandatory Education Spending Constitutional Amendment [1988]) and the promise of Prop 2 (Rainy Day Budget Stabilization Fund Act [2014]) – guarantees that increased revenue go to education – especially as decreased revenues in the past came from public education.
This is not necessarily good news for prison guards and bullet-train aficionados and any+everyone else whose special interest is not K-14 education - because those programs will not get the same amount of the surge as K-14. And none of this flood of new cash is going to fix the drought or seal the borders.We will hear about the evil of “one-time-money” and how it will corrupt any-and-everything we hold dear. Plus profligate school boards will just spend the money on teacher’s salaries and fripperies like iPads and MiSiS. We just weathered the rainy-day-to-end-all-rainy days (a complicated metaphor in a water shortage) – we should save the surplus is a reservoir for the next fiscal crisis! Or spend it on shiny, sparkly things like prison guards and high speed rail.
“Algebra never changes; those books will last another year!”
I am being sarcastic – but there will be a great temptation in Sacramento to get creative with the education funding guarantee and call-it-or-spin smoke+mirrors as “long overdue funding reform”.
There’s a lot of money in play and it would be much better for one’s political career to spend it in some new+dynamic way – on some wonderful new program – rather than pay it back to the children it was borrowed from.
It would be nice if the creativity limits itself to funding Pre-Kindergarten programs for 4 year olds – enlarging Prop 98 to Pre K–14 …but the legislature+governor are far more creative than that. They will attempt to pass along more of the unfunded CalSTRS (teachers’ pension plan) liability to school districts – but STRS is a state plan guaranteed+administered by the State of California. They are the bankers. The obligation is with Sacramento – not West Wugwump Union School District or LAUSD!
Local control is all well and good when the locals are controlling diminishing resources …but this is something different.
Call me a cynic – but convince me otherwise.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office paints a rosy picture of the State of California’s revenue projections for the next two years – with a full Kodachrome treatment with those nice bright colors that give us the greens of summer that makes you think all the world's a sunny day for public education funding in 2015-16.
(For extra credit compare+contrast this music cue with the opening stanza of Paul Simon’s song - the part with the scatological reference to the high school curriculum.)
The LAO also goes out of the way to find the leaden lining in the bright silvery cloud.
On Thursday Kenneth Kapphahn – the LAO’s resident authority on education issues - addressed the LAUSD Board of Education’s Budget, Facilities and Audit Committee and presented his PowerPoint – doing his best to make it seem that the good news (“Revenue projections are for at least 1 or 2 billion dollars over the Governor’s original budget forecast – and might be as much as 4 or 5 billion over) is something to be cautious about. Nobody mentioned counting unhatched-eggs-as-chickens at any point in the presentation …but the metaphor was in there – pecking its way out.
The complications of all this money – not a windfall, but a surge in revenue - is complicated, especially for the governor and legislature – who may not want to see Public Education get all they (or “We”: you and I and six million California schoolchildren) are entitled to, statutorily and constitutionally.
And the Office of the LAUSD Superintendent is horrified by the prospect of “one-time-money” – seeing it almost as ill-gotten-gains to corrupt the morals and disrupt the austerity of our school district. LAUSD CFO Megan Reilly did her best to warn of the pitfalls of too much money and/or irrational exuberance. Megan may be a bean-counter – and the adjective’ ‘heartless’ is usually automatically appended to that job description – but she is not that good an actor. I daresay he is incapable of Dickensian villainy in any production of anything!{module [1177]}
TWO KINDS OF “ONE TIME MONEY”:• When questioned, Mr. Kapphahn identified “One Time Money” as money inserted into a budget during a current budget year to correct a budget shortfall, spending overage or unanticipated cost.
• The popular understanding of 1T$ is: Revenue in any budget – anticipated or not - that is not likely to be repeated: A grant that will expire, a philanthropic gift or a revenue surge that cannot be relied upon next year. Supt. Cortines believes Supt. Deasy relied far too much on this flavor of one-time-money to precariously balance his budgets.
For some additional background read these:
• TOO MUCH REVENUE, TOO LITTLE FLEXIBILITY. Is this California's fate?• Walters: CALIFORNIA’S REVENUE GAINS MAY BE A BUDGET PROBLEM
THE PERFECT STORM IS THREATENING: LAUSD is locked in negotiations with its teachers and there is more than enough mistrust and acrimony and ill-feeling all around. Three members of the board of education are campaigning against strong opponents – with outside money in play and outside interests huffing+puffing to blow the house down. John Deasy left a mess and it’s not cleaned up yet. Charter schools nibble at the edges. LAUSD probably won’t get the CORE Waiver approved by Arne Co. at the U.S. Dept. of Ed (which doesn’t pay its custodians the minimum wage) …but NCLB – which was doomed+damning from the outset (“Every child will be proficient by 2014 or we will close their school down!”) keeps returning from the grave like a bad zombie movie.
There are tipping points at every turn. MiSiS and Isis and iPads, oh my.
In truth there will be more money next year and it both
A. won’t be enough…
B. and has to be enough…
and nobody is going to get everything they want.
Just like in real life.
SATURDAY WAS THE FIFTIETH ANIVERSARY OF THE ORIGINAL ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION ACT: ESEA. The original law was less than 40 pages long, blessedly short for federal legislation – the newest proposed revision to ESEA (see CONGRESS MOVES A (BIG) STEP CLOSER, following) is 601 pages long. Until ESEA morphed/metastasized into No Child Left Behind (and spun crazily off into Race to the Top) it was a good piece of legislation – not perfect – but as a keystone in LBJ’s War on Poverty recognizing of the challenge that poverty and the lack of educational opportunity are a self-perpetuating cycle.
ALSO THURSDAY: just as the BFA Committee was getting the Good News-that-is-Bad-News about the surfeit of funding, the California Supreme Court “clarified” the Prop 39 Charter School Classroom Allocation Dispute between LAUSD and CCSA is such a way that both sides did a little victory dance.To be honest I don’t know what the decision means …maybe the courts can figure it out?
¡Onward/Adelante!
(Scott Folsom is a parent and parent leader in LAUSD. He is the former President of Los Angeles 10th District PTSA and represents PTA as Vice-chair the LAUSD Construction Bond Citizen's Oversight Committee. Scott is a member of the California State PTA Board on Managers. He blogs at the excellent 4 LA Kids … where this perspective was originally posted.)
-cw
CityWatch
Vol 13 Issue 31
Pub: Apr 14, 2015
