CommentsISSUE OF SOVEREIGNTY - March 15, 1939: Hitler’s army marched into Czechoslovakia with the blessings of the British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain.
Chamberlain’s acquiescence ranks among the most feckless decisions of modern times. It precipitated catastrophic consequences for the world.
What is presently shaping up along Ukraine’s border with Russia and Belarus, while not with the same potential for death and destruction, will still turn the world upside down. Nevertheless, the prospect of 40,000 – 50,000 civilian deaths is criminal, especially when you consider the reason for an invasion by Russia would be to satisfy the sociopathic aspirations of Vladimir Putin.
His claiming that Ukraine or NATO represents a strategic threat to Russia has no basis in fact. No nation, with or without the participation of allies, has a chance of threatening Russia today.
Germany attempted to conquer the former Soviet Union in 1941 in what is still the largest invasion in history, which involved over 4 million Axis troops. It turned out to be the beginning of the end for Hitler.
Today, no nation has anything close to those numbers nor possesses the logistics to make an attack against Russia remotely feasible. Even a united NATO effort would fall way short and be countered by an adversary equally strong and perhaps more resilient. An attack against Russia would also be economically devastating for all sides.
But the calculus of an invasion by Russia against Ukraine is different. Putin can already overwhelm the much smaller Ukrainian military along three fronts: north, south and east. We have nothing in place to discourage attacks from those directions. Putin would have to weigh the threat of sanctions, but he has the leverage to hurt our NATO allies by threatening to withhold natural gas from some or most of the EU. The EU is heavily dependent on Russia’s natural gas supplies. However, such a strategy would cause long term pain for Russia, so Putin can’t overplay his hand. In the short run, though, a cutback of natural gas to Western Europe would make sense, especially if the invasion is quick – as in Crimea quick. Please click on this link for an excellent analysis of energy strategies and their impacts:
Ukraine’s sovereignty depends on how the US and its key NATO partners react. Under the terms of the Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK have the right to protect Ukraine’s territorial boundaries. The agreement also required Ukraine to surrender its nuclear weapons arsenal, the third largest in the world at that time:
What measures can the US and UK take besides sanctions?
They can make a commitment to Ukraine to move troops into Western Ukraine if, and only if, Russia invades. The forces would occupy defensive positions and not initiate combat. Ukrainian ethnicity is strongest in the region encompassing Lviv and the Carpathian Mountains. Poland is adjacent and can serve as a base for logistics and support.
Putin would scream bloody murder, but he would not authorize an attack on NATO troops in that region. Russia would already face a robust insurgency in the east; the last thing it needs is an even more powerful one in the west.
With NATO troops in the west, the Ukrainian military would have its back covered there and at least be able to retain regional control. The national government could transfer to Lviv. At least there would be a degree of sovereignty retained. Communication and support to insurgencies in other parts of the country could be maintained, although with difficulty. It would bring back memories of Afghanistan to the Russian people.
The US and UK would probably be supported by units from Poland and Canada - Canada has a significant ethnic Ukrainian population. Cultural ties are deep.
If Russia invades, when will it occur?
Putin has a history of using the Olympics as a springboard for seizing territory he covets. Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Summer Games and Crimea towards the end of the Sochi Winer Games in 2014. I guess that makes Putin a man for all seasons.
I would not expect him to launch an invasion until after the current Games. Raining on China’s parade will not go over well with Xi Jinping.
Putin is a numbers guy. He will weigh the costs versus the benefits. If they break measurably in his favor, the invasion is on.
(Paul Hatfield is a CPA and former NC Valley Village board member and treasurer. He blogs at Village to Village and contributes to CityWatch. He can be reached at: [email protected])