ALPERN AT LARGE-For those of willing to get out and vote in a low-voter turnout election, and for those of us who still pay enough attention to note the results, there are a few key lessons to be learned in Tuesday’s primary election. Not the least important lesson however is this: the "Top Two" Primary System is a small success.
Furthermore, the more conservative (dare I say "Republican"?) voices in California are still alive, and are still willing to be heard if any politician is willing to listen. For those who don't, it might really cost them politically.
Let's start with the Governor's race--while it's clearly Jerry Brown's race to lose in November, because he's now the quasi-Republican, quasi-fiscal conservative who potentially obviates a Republican governor when confronting a Democratic, left-wing Legislature, the moderates and Independents clearly won the day last Tuesday.
Not only did many Republicans vote for Brown, and help fund his re-election campaign, but it's likely that both Independents and moderate Republicans (or even conservative Republicans, voting pragmatically) voted for a relatively unknown Republican Neel Kashkari over a more famous-turned-infamous Tim Donnelly.
Donnelly's lack of funding, and his lack of tact, shoved many Republicans (and those who want a direction different than the one that Jerry Brown and the Democratic party are taking California) away from him and towards Kashkari, who on close inspection is almost a mirror image of Jerry Brown.
Just as Brown works better with Republicans than other California Democrats, Kashkari has a long record of working with Democrats. And if Kashkari will be blamed for implementing the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) that saved Wall Street from a total meltdown, Brown will certainly be blamed for a California High Speed Rail (CAHSR) initiative that is increasingly being abandoned by leading Democratic and Independent leaders and voters.
In the long run, TARP will by many be perceived as a success (not by all, of course), and it's one of the few initiatives that's made money after the 2008-9 domestic and global economic meltdown. Not so for the CAHSR initiative that many fear will be a long-term budget buster, and that will threaten other transportation/infrastructure initiatives because of its siphoning funds and credibility from other voters' and taxpayers' needs.
Furthermore, the so-called "economic recovery" of California appears to not be a tide that is lifting all boats, but rather a few lucky sectors with--at best--a flat-lined or even decreasing number of jobs (certainly well-paying, middle-class jobs). There's a reason why so many voters stayed home last Tuesday, and why fiscal conservatives did relatively well.
In other words, if a relatively-unknown Hindu social-moderate named Neel Kashkari who voted for Obama in 2008 can defeat flag-waving minuteman Tim Donnelly in the GOP/statewide primaries, it would be foolish for Governor Brown to ignore him altogether. One or two good debates might make a lot of unhappy Californians pay attention and, at the very least, make this more of a horse race than many might predict.
Moving on to other races, it's possible that our next Controller will be a Republican, with Republican outsider David Evans possibly overcoming former Assembly speaker and Democrat John Perez to face off against fellow Republican and Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin.
And the fact that Democrat Alex Padilla and Republican Pete Peterson are virtually tied at 30% each in a Secretary of State runoff race, which saw indicted state senator Leland Yee get third place with 10% of the vote, suggests that either there is a huge hunk of California voters who are oblivious to current events and/or a huge hunk of California voters who are really infuriated and want to make a protest statement.
Either way, we're looking at a strong slap in the collective faces of those who were presuming (and craving, oh so very much craving!) California was forever to be a one-party state. Particularly because this one-party state is turning into an anti-business, anti-quality of life, state-run, top-down, ignore-the-rules nightmare with a growing rich-poor divide.
However, this is still a blue state, and while it's great that the House of Representatives seat held by outgoing Henry Waxman got the two most qualified and interesting candidates--Democrat Ted Lieu and Republican Elan Carr--the huge field of candidates that split up the Democratic voters almost guarantees Lieu a victory over Carr in the fall.
That said, we should look forward to the two campaigning and presenting their competing visions, as well as the debates and campaigns and ideas from those who made the runoffs in other local and statewide elections.
For the most part, moderates won the day last Tuesday. Those political candidates who chose to ignore the other party's voters, and to ignore Independents and moderate voters, are now out of the running (where they belong).
There were many surprises coming from last Tuesday's elections, but anyone that presumes November is a foregone conclusion--particularly with scandal after scandal rocking the White House, and with a state and national economy that is still favoring the rich but NOT the middle class--is viewing the world through rose-colored glasses.
No one should realistically ignore the numbers that favor Democratic candidates more than Republican candidates this fall, but the possibility of yet another low voter turnout is quite good...and that means that the era where candidates of a given party could take voters for granted might just possibly be coming to an end.
Or at least we can hope that it's coming to an end--ignoring the voters never bodes well for a democratic, representative society.
(Ken Alpern is a Westside Village Zone Director and Boardmember of the Mar Vista Community Council (MVCC), previously co-chaired its Planning and Outreach Committees, and currently is Co-Chair of its MVCC Transportation/Infrastructure Committee. He is co-chair of the CD11 Transportation Advisory Committee and chairs the nonprofit Transit Coalition, and can be reached at [email protected] This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. . He also does regular commentary on the Mark Isler Radio Show on AM 870, and co-chairs the grassroots Friends of the Green Line at www.fogl.us . The views expressed in this article are solely those of Mr. Alpern.)
-cw
CityWatch
Vol 12 Issue 46
Pub: June 6, 2014
